It’s no accident that some of the biggest proponents of beyondism these days are folks who believe that at least some socially conservative evangelicals can be induced to switch party affiliations, from Republican to Democrat.

The thinking goes that if progressive politicians would only mute their stances on abortion and homosexuality, evangelicals would line up with their proper economic interests in the Democratic fold. Butta-boom, butta-bing, third way politics!

I honestly don’t know what drives this thinking beyond tantalizing personal experience. I’ve met a few conservative evangelicals who seem to be on the same page as myself economically or on the war in Iraq. Some of them even seem to be quite a bit more socially progressive than their church affiliation would indicate. It’s great to talk to them, and it’s great to think that they could be progressives some day – but then they go into the voting booth and pull the lever for Republicans just like they’ve always done.

Politics is a lot more tribal than we want to admit sometimes. I wish I could believe that the conservative megachurches are ripe with progressive converts, but the numbers simply don’t bear that assertion out. Says Stuart Rothenberg:

Aside from a very strange Washington Post piece shortly after the November elections that inexplicably exaggerated Democrats’ gains among evangelicals in the midterm elections, most observers have noted the minimal Democratic gains among white evangelicals in 2006.

The GOP percentage among white evangelicals dropped by 4 points from 2004 to 2006, from 74 percent to 70 percent, according to exit polls. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ showing inched up to 28 percent from 25 percent.

Given the strong Democratic year and the huge Republican advantage with white evangelicals, the Democrats’ gain was unimpressive. The 2006 midterm elections were so stunningly good for Democrats that all voter groups moved toward the Democratic Party last year.

Rothenberg compares evangelicals to Jews and blacks, other groups who have long been courted by Republicans, but who stick to the protection of historic voting patterns.

In that regard, this piece on anti-abortion outreach efforts to blacks is interesting. Look where it ends up:

Political scientists say such appeals are unlikely to sway many African Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

"Crisis pregnancy centers would probably be quite popular as institutions" to give women moral support and free baby gear, said Melissa Harris-Lacewell, an associate professor of African American studies at Princeton University. "But that means almost nothing for the Republican notion of pulling blacks in as morality voters."

In national surveys on race and politics, David Bositis asks blacks an open-ended question: Name your top three concerns for the country.

"I've done 15,000 interviews over the past 15 years, and I doubt if abortion has come up in five of them," said Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C.

When he asks African American pastors, they talk about police brutality, elder care, jobs for released convicts. "Their agenda is not the same kind of moral agenda you often get with white churches," Bositis said. "Abortion doesn't show up."

Thinking that appealing to distinctive cultural groups on the basis of one or two issues can cause them to realign politically simply isn’t realistic. As the piece above indicates, there are many different aspects that get factored into the decision. Not the least of those is the intangible and stubborn cultural identification. Utahans like to think of themselves as rural, Mormon, and Republican. Many blacks at least like to see themselves as urban, Christian and Democratic. You might just as well use dynamite to get those identities to shift.

Look, I don’t want to pour cold water on the idea of evangelical outreach, but I just can’t see how it works out in practice. If somebody can show me some numbers that say different, I’ll happily reconsider. In the meantime, the smart money is with moderate Catholics, not conservative evangelicals.